You may have heard it from your know-it-all in-law, or a snidely friend who happens to have one-of-each, or maybe even your doctor: after having 2 or 3 boys, you might as well forget about ever having a daughter, because the odds are you're going to keep having boys. Or if you've only had girls, maybe you "just can't make" a boy. Show
Well, think again. Remember that looking at very small data samples (two or three children) is very misleading: so let's take a look at data for over 6,000 American families, and find out:
The 51/49 Boy/Girl RatioTotal Boys/Girls in StudyBoys6,389 51%Girls6,135 49%Total12,524The ratio of 51% boys to 49% girls seen here is representative of overall US birth rates. There are many hypotheses about why there are slightly more boys born each year than girls, but no one knows for sure why this is so. Here are a couple of the theories:
Regardless of the reason, the 51/49 ratio remains constant year to year throughout the US population. Are Boys or Girls Preferred?Do parents tend to keep having children in hopes of having a boy or a girl? In some cultures, there is a strong desire for a son, but parents in the US may have a "balance preference", a desire to have one of each gender. Here's what the data shows: Did the first child's gender influence whether to have a second child?
Did previous children's gender influence whether to have a third child?
Combining boy/boy and girl/girl, we see: What about the fourth child?
Combining this into same-gender and mixed-gender families, it turns out they are almost equally likely to have a 4th child, although same-gender families are slightly more likely. Previous ChildrenParents Having 4th ChildSame Gender 28%Mixed Gender 26%The Odds of Having a Another Boy or GirlOkay, finally! Let's look at the odds of having a boy or a girl, given that previous children are all of the opposite gender. Odds of Having a Girl After 1, 2, or 3 BoysThe odds of having a girl seem decrease after having each boy, but only very slightly. Even after 3 boys, you are only 6.4% more likely to have a 4th boy than a girl. Previous ChildrenPercentage of Girl Births after BoysNone49%1 Boy50%2 Boys47.7%3 Boys43.6%Odds of Having a Boy After 1, 2, or 3 GirlsThe odds of having a boy seem to increase after having girls, except after 2 girls, when a 3rd girl is more likely. Previous ChildrenPercentage of Boy Births after GirlsNone51%1 Girl54.5%2 Girls46.0%3 Girls52.7%Gender and Birth OrderGiven the data above, it looks like you are slightly more likely to have a boy, regardless of previous children. This is probably due to the overall 51/49 boy/girl birth ratio. This ratio, interestingly, varies slightly with birth order; it isn't consistent among first-borns, second-borns, etc. Percentage of Boy Births by Birth Order1st Born51.0%2nd Born52.2%3rd Born48.6%4th Born50.8%What's it all mean?Although we often hear the "statistic" that you are 30% or even 70% more likely to keep having the same gender, this is just an old wives tale. It is NOT a fact. The truth is, your odds stay pretty close to 50% for each child and only vary slightly. If you have had 2 or 3 boys, you are only very slightly more likely to have another boy. If you have had girls, you are slightly more likely to have a boy next. Don't believe that you can "only make" boys or girls -- most likely, it's only chance! When am I most likely to get pregnant with a boy?Fertile days for a boy: Y-sperm (which produce fetuses with XY chromosomes) supposedly travel more quickly through the reproductive system and have a shorter life span. So, the idea is sex close to ovulation is more likely to result in a boy.
How likely is it to have a boy after having a girl?Generally speaking, there's about a 51 percent chance you'll have a boy and 49 percent chance you'll have a girl.
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