Will California get rain this winter 2022

There’s wet weather in the Northern California forecast this weekend, but don’t get your hopes up about an end to the drought.

The National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, in its annual winter outlook, said this week that California can expect “drier-than-average conditions” — suggesting that one of the worst droughts in recorded history will continue for a fourth year.

The agency said dry weather is expected in California, the southern Rockies and across much of the Midwest.

The winter forecast is crucial because California typically gets the vast majority of its yearly rain and snow between January and March. This year, however, the January-March period was among the driest ever seen.

Officials with the California Department of Water Resources have already said they’re preparing for “continued extreme drought” this winter. Folsom Lake, which provides water to much of the Sacramento region, sits at 30% below average for this time of year. Shasta Lake, the largest reservoir in California, is 41% below average.

Dale Kasler is a former reporter for The Sacramento Bee. He covered climate change, the environment, economics and California water.

With temperatures in the triple digits Labor Day weekend, the idea of winter is either the light at the end of the tunnel or a faraway fantasy.

Either way, winter is coming, and weather predictions for the season are here.

Here’s what to expect

It won’t be a winter wonderland in California this season.

Mild temperatures and drier than normal conditions are expected to come to the California region, according to the Farmer’s Almanac 2022-2023 Extended Winter Forecast.

The Farmer’s Almanac is a publication founded in 1818 and is a source for long-range weather predictions based on a mathematical and astronomical formula. According to the publication, its readers maintain that forecasts are 80% to 85% accurate.

These predictions align with the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s experimental long-range forecasts.

Paul Ullrich, professor of regional and global climate modeling at the University of California, Davis, said the drier winter season could be due to the persistent La Niña that the state is experiencing.

La Niña is when the temperature of the sea surface is cooler than average in the Eastern Pacific, Ullrich said. This results in less evaporation, weaker storm track and less moisture, overall, in the atmosphere.

“So here in California, we usually experienced that in the form of less rainfall overall over the winter season,” said Ullrich.

He added that the state is going through a negative phase of Pacific Decadal Oscillation, a longer-term climate pattern that lasts 20 to 30 years before switching phases. Being in the negative phase is typically associated with somewhat drier conditions, he said.

“So it’s anticipated that this winter season, unfortunately will be much like the winter seasons for the past three years, where we’re seeing anywhere from 50% to 75% of normal winter season precipitation,” Ullrich said.

Will we see a chilly winter?

Not with climate change.

According to NOAA predictions, the seasonal temperatures for the winter months are above average.

“This is a prediction that is inspired by climate change and our knowledge that every year effectively is getting warmer and warmer on average,” Ullrich said. “So a prediction of above average temperatures compared to what we saw 10 years ago is a pretty easy bet to make.”

Will there be any weather phenomena?

It’s hard to tell now if we’ll see any flooding or extreme weather conditions, like the bomb cyclone Northern California saw last year.

“California is an extreme place,” Ullrich said, adding that the seasonal predictability of how much precipitation we’ll get in the winter is low.

“It’s entirely possible that we’re going to see a complete reversal of this prediction and see indications of wetter conditions, or we might get a few lucky atmospheric rivers that come through that really dump a lot of precipitation on us,” he said. “And as a consequence, we experience an abnormally wet season.”

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This story was originally published September 4, 2022 5:00 AM.

Hanh Truong is a reporter on The Sacramento Bee’s utility desk. She was previously a freelance journalist, covering education and culture for PBS SoCal and music for buzzbands.la.