Credit:
Garrett Ellwood/NBAE via Getty Images. Pictured: Jayson Tatum #0 and Jaylen Brown #7 of the Boston Celtics.
- Five different players have scored first in the NBA Finals so far, and NBA First Basket breaks down who will score first in Game 6.
- He's eying plays on a trio of Celtics and Andrew Wiggins.
- Check out NBA First Basket's picks and analysis below.
NBA First Basket will break down some of his favorite NBA plays of the day here, and will track all his bets in The Action Network app.
Jaylen Brown | Jayson Tatum | Andrew Wiggins | Robert Williams
| Prop | Brown (+1400) | Tatum (+950) | Wiggins (+2400) | Williams (+2400) |
| Matchup | Warriors vs. Celtics |
| Time | 9 p.m. ET |
| Book | FanDuel |
Game 6 of the NBA finals takes place Thursday night in Boston with the Celtics facing elimination. Robert Williams (59% Win Rate) will take on Draymond Green (33% Win Rate) in the opening tip-off. Williams has won one of two tip-offs against Green this season.
Boston is first in the league at scoring first, doing so 63% of the time, while Golden State is below the league average and scores first only 40% of the time. Boston has been more successful than Golden State has at scoring first in the playoffs, but Golden State has scored first in four of the five games this series.
This series has been extremely difficult to predict with five different players scoring first in this series. The one constant has been Jaylen Brown taking the first Boston shot and scoring the first team basket for in three of the five games in the series. We’ll be stepping back our risk today due to results from the first five games in the series. Expect Boston to win today to push the series to Game 7.
Nonetheless, I still love the Brown and Andrew Wiggins 3-pointer exact method plays at +1400 and +2400, respectively. I’ll also be playing Jayson Tatum first basket and Celtics to win outright in a parlay at +950. Tatum didn’t attempt a shot in Game 5 until the 2:06 mark in the first quarter, and I think Boston will emphasize putting the ball in his hands early today.
Lastly, I’m throwing in Robert Williams layup exact method for first basket as Kevon Looney is not likely to start – I could see a lob pass to Williams from Marcus Smart or Tatum if they get downhill into the lane.
Picks:
- Jaylen Brown Exact Method: 3-pointer (+1400, Risk 0.3 units, play to +1200)
- Jayson Tatum First Basket and Celtics to Win Parlay (+950, Risk 0.4 units, play to +850)
- Andrew Wiggins Exact Method: 3-pointer (+2400, Risk 0.2 units, play to +2100)
- Robert Williams Exact Method: layup (+2400, Risk 0.2 units, play to +2100)
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Top Plays: 13 of 61 (21.3%, +35.9u)
*considering 1u risk for Top Plays* / **value plays become top plays if Top Play is announced out**
Check out all of today’s First Basket Player Prop Bets >>
CHICAGO BULLS @ NEW ORLEANS PELICANS – 8:00 EST
This will be the 2nd matchup of the year between the Bulls and Pelicans, with the Bulls having scored 1st Basket earlier in the season (Lonzo Ball). Nikola Vucevic (35% Tip Win) will face Jonas Valanciunas (53% Tip Win) and he is 1-0 on the year. In the previous game, the Bulls scored on the 1st possession.
Despite winning 53% of his tips, Valanciunas and the Pelicans only score 1st in 39% of his games. Conversely, Vucevic only wins 35% of his tips but the Bulls score 1st in 54% of his games. The crazy thing is, Vucevic’s Tip Win% gets even worse on the road (28%), but the Bulls 1st Basket % increases (59%).
The Pelicans have been scored on 1st in 3 straight home games. In the last 7 games, the Pelicans have been scored on 1st, it’s been a SG or C in 6 of them.
The Bulls have scored 1st in 7 of last 8 road games despite Vuc only winning the tip in 4 of them. In the last 12 games for the Bulls, Javonte Green or Nikola Vucevic have scored 1st team basket in 10 of them (cashing 1st Basket in 6 of them). Although Javonte Green plays PF for the Bulls, he is a natural SG, so I like this to still lineup with the trend of SG’s scoring against the Pels.
The only other player I’d consider for the Bulls is Lavine, although he’s only cashed 1st Basket 1 time in 2022. Alex Caruso also hasn’t cashed 1st Basket all year for the Bulls. So I’ll stay away from them.
Javonte Green has scored 1st (including last night) in 3 of the Bulls’ last 12 (25%) and his value at +1500 is an implied probability of 6.3%. Too much value here tonight to pass up on playing him.
TOP PICKS: Nikola Vucevic +500, Javonte Green +1500
View the best player prop bets for tonight’s slate with our NBA Prop Bet Cheat Sheet >>
NBA Player Prop Bets
Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.
First basket player prop bets are a great way to jump into NBA betting action. It’s a bet that will be decided very quickly… with the first basket! You are betting on a player to score their team’s first basket. If they do, you win!
Let’s take a look at our favorite first basket player prop bet picks for tonight.
(Odds courtesy of FanDuel)
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Milwaukee Bucks vs. Boston Celtics
In the three games of the series so far, it was Robert Williams vs. Brook Lopez, with Lopez taking two of them. They have tipped off against each other four times total, with both having two wins apiece.
The Celtics scored first in 65% of their games this season which led the league, while the Bucks scored on just 52%.
In the seven games these teams played each other in this season, Jaylen Brown scored the first basket in three of them including in Game 2.
Brown has scored the first Celtics field goal in seven of the last 13 games, including the first basket in this series, and he far surpasses everyone in the league by scoring the first basket in 33% of Celtics games this year.
First basket: Jaylen Brown +500
Golden State Warriors vs. Memphis Grizzlies
In the previous two games, it’s been Draymond Green vs. Jaren Jackson in the tip-off with Jackson winning both. This time they had Jonathan Kuminga try to face Jackson, but once against he won the tipoff. Ja Morant took the ball halfcourt and for the second straight game he came away with the assist, this time on a Ziaire Williams three-pointer.
The Warriors are one of the best first scoring teams in the league as they hit the first bucket in 60% of their games. Kevin Looney is their leader in hitting the first bucket at 30%
The Grizzlies were also one of the best first scorers in the league this year, including scoring first in over 60% of their games in February. Ja Morant will miss Game 4 and this means someone will need to step up if they don’t want to go down 3-1.
Desmond Bane gained possession on the previous tip-off, and I believe he’s the right man to step up for Memphis in this important game.
First basket: Desmond Bane +750
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Whether you’re new to sports betting or a betting pro, our Sports Betting Strategy and Advice page is for you. You can get started with our 101 section — including 10 Sports Betting Tips for Beginners — or head to more advanced strategy — like Key Numbers When Betting Against the Spread — to learn more.