Will used car prices drop in 2022 reddit

Hello, I'm on the verge of buying a used car, however I need to hear your thoughts on some issues.

For the last 6 months the prices of used cars have soared (I'm from Eastern Europe, but I guess that is the case - with various increases and local factors in charge - pretty much everywhere in the 'western' world).

So: should I buy a highly overpriced used car today (I'm talking about a 50-100% increase in prices right now), or should I wait for let's say next year. Given the global crisis in the (very) near future (and present, of course), what's your vote:

YES: The prices of used cars will rise dramatically. Buy now or you'll regret it, because cars will be much more expensive in 2023 and the next 5 years.

NO: Don't be stupid, just wait the crisis to pass, cars will be cheaper next year.

P.S. I tried to find some info on used cars' price during & after the 2008 crisis, but didn't find much answers. Some say during & after the 2008 crisis, people sold their luxury cars, which could be bought cheap (I'm not looking for anything luxury, just a 2004 Honda CR-V), others say that used cars' price went up in 2008 and stayed up for at least 5 years or more.

I don't know if the approaching 2022 financial crisis could and should be compared to the 2008 one, but I'm seeking for any insight, upon which to make a decision.

"To repeat, while I've seen gluts not followed by squeezes, I've never seen a squeeze not followed by a glut."

Shortages are nearly always followed by gluts. It may take some time to eventuate yet, but eventually the world's car makers will catch up, resume normal production and then they will surpass it to meet the increased demand. This will inevitably end in a glut. The rapid price of both used car prices and new car prices (some car makers have had three price increases in the last 12 months, I have never ever seen that before) is not sustainable.

Also, a ridiculous high percentag of new car purchases are funded by debt. With interest rates rising, this will also put pressure on prices.

I believe by at a minimum the middle of next year we will see car prices start to decline.

Wait as long as possible is the easiest method. However, if you really need to trade now, ensure you sell your vehicle for the highest possible price. Do not trade at a dealer unless they’re giving you on the higher end of private party value. High used car prices are offset by the high value of your own used car.

Dealers rely on stealing trades from people to pad margin. Every car they take in is potential for profit, even if just to make a thousand. I recently had a dealer try to offer me half of what I sold it for myself a week later. A difference of $7000.

So my 2010 Mazda3 is on its last legs and with how crazy used car prices are, I'm trying to see if I should just get a new car vs a used car.

I've basically decided that the new car I would want to target would be a 2022/2023 Hyundai Elantra Hybrid in the Blue trim and that any used car would be in the same compact-ish and larger segment (Sentra, Corolla, etc.) from 2018-2020 probably.

If I am able to get a new car for msrp, does this make sense? At what price point would a used car make sense if I continue to wait out the market?

For reference, I have looked at Edmund's true cost to own calculator and it makes it seem like a new car is the way to go, but I want to make sure I am not missing anything.

2022 Elantra Hybrid Blue

2019 Sentra SV

The above Sentra is for example as it seems to be the most available used car on the market^

Thank you in advance!

Getting my Kia Sorento serviced yesterday and having a chat with one of the sales guys..

They are looking at a 2 year wait on new Sorentos and Carnivals and 6 months for most others.

Supply and demand, less people selling, more people want them

Used cars will be over inflated for a while me thinks,

Blame the the silicon chip shortage

I'm seeing depreciation on Facebook marketplace. I keep an eye on a few models and while some types are still holding value, most have depreciated.

Motorcycles are back down. 06-era super sports (600cc 'not race bikes') were around $6,500 minimum, but I just saw an undertail exhaust 600cc (cbr, zx, etc) for $3,500. I noticed that yamaharleys were up as well; v-stars will likely hold value as they always do, however VT750's are slinking back to 3k.

I've seen Getz going for less than 4k finally. i30's are pretty average vehicles but you can get one for sub 5k still. When I was looking at doing daily long distance driving I was considering an i30 diesel due to the great fuel consumption and they were sub 5k two years ago however they're not much higher than 5k at the moment. For comparison on the Getz; you could get one for about 1.5k two years ago and those same models are being listed for 5k+.

I've noticed that sought-after fourbies are going for less too. Jeep listing prices are down, and those who are still chasing covid taxed prices are not moving their vehicles for weeks/months. Rangers are starting to settle a little bit too, but it's pretty rare. You can get PD's for semi-reasonable prices at least, but the PK owners are still living in dreamland. Over all models (lux's, landies, etc) I've seen prices start to creep down, and people chasing 25k for a 2012 lux are stuck not moving those vehicles it seems.

Pajeros are a bit of an exception; we've seen older models come up at sub 5k.

Subies continue to be reasonably priced. I'd say that Foresters are still a little up, however XVs and Imprezzas can be found for very reasonable prices. I just did a quick search and the cheapest Forester XS (04) is a top spec and they're asking 5k; semi-reasonable price for a good used car, however they haven't been able to move it in 19 weeks.

Two things that I've noticed in the past six months; reasonably priced models get snapped up, and unreasonably priced models seem to sit for prolonged periods of time (20-30 weeks or more).

I've also noticed that people have started relisting their cars because I can only assume people rock up like "it's been listed for 30 weeks, make it cheaper mate".

I reckon we'll continue to see people chasing unrealistic goals for their cars for a little while longer, primarily coming from people who purchased cars during covid without much perspective of the inflated price they paid, and who are chasing close to what they paid.

These people will be beaten by the market though. This will change based on the model of vehicle; noone wants to pay $30,000 for a 2013 Ranger XLT it seems however they would pay sub 25k (going by a model that was listed for 30k and has dropped to 26k; room to haggle). Conversely, someone in love with XV's wouldn't have many alternatives to it, and would probably justify circa $10,000 for the vehicle, even if you could pick them up for sub 10k pre-covid.

Don't forget to haggle. Some people are willing to drop those prices down, especially those who bought the car pre-covid prices...

Edit: curiously, what's your (parents) budget and preferences?