Real madrid vs real sociedad - prediction sports mole

Sports Mole previews Saturday's La Liga match between a Cristiano Ronaldo-less Real Madrid and David Moyes's Real Sociedad at the Bernabeu.

Having already toppled the mighty Barcelona during his time in Spain, David Moyes will take his Real Sociedad side to the Bernabeu to face Real Madrid this weekend having served a two-game touchline ban.

It is a daunting task for the visitors, with Madrid leading the way in La Liga and having only been beaten once in front of their own fans all season.

However, the hosts will be without their talisman Cristiano Ronaldo as he begins a two-match ban for kicking out at Cordoba's Edimar during last weekend's 2-1 win at the Estadio Nuevo Arcangel.

Madrid were forced to wait until late to get that victory, with Gareth Bale stepping up in Ronaldo's absence with an 89th-minute penalty that completed the turnaround.

Carlo Ancelotti will be hoping that the Welshman, who has received criticism for his performances and decision-making at times this season, is once again ready to fill the void left by the Portuguese striker this weekend.

Even without Ronaldo, Madrid have the firepower to cause any side in the world problems, and a fourth straight league victory would temporarily give them a four-point cushion over Barcelona with a game in hand over their closest rivals.

Only Atletico Madrid have prevented Real from winning at the Bernabeu this season, while they have won six home league games in a row, scoring 24 goals and conceding just three in the process. Indeed, you have to go back to September 2013 for the last time Real failed to score at home in the league.

With Karim Benzema having ended his longest goal drought of the season against Cordoba, he will lead the line once again this weekend, while Ronaldo's suspension could pave the way for Jese to make his first start since returning from a lengthy knee ligament injury.

Isco, Pepe and Luka Modric are all still doubts, however, which could mean that the likes of Sami Khedira and Raphael Varane keep their places in the starting XI.

Sociedad have not had the best of times overall this season, but they have managed to raise their game against the big boys in La Liga so far.

Atletico and Barca have both been beaten by the Basque outfit, while they came from two goals down to beat Madrid 4-2 in the reverse of this fixture at the end of August.

Moyes has set about rebuilding his shattered reputation since arriving in Spain, and his side have been beaten just twice in his nine league matches at the helm.

That run has seen them climb away from danger and towards the top half of the table, although any ambitions of European football look to have fallen by the wayside long ago.

Their big-game performances this season will give them confidence of pulling off another shock, but their record at the Bernabeu is a dismal one. They have not won there since a memorable 4-1 victory in May 2004, only avoiding defeat on one occasion over the last decade.

In addition to that, they have conceded at least four goals on each of their last four visits, while Madrid have won all of their last 14 home matches against Basque sides.

To make matters worse, Sociedad are the only side in La Liga yet to pick up an away victory this season, with no side amassing fewer points on their travels.

Xabi Prieto got the only goal of the game against Eibar last time out and the skipper is once again expected to lead the side from midfield, with Carlos Vela and Sergio Canales providing support for Imanol Agirretxe.

Real Madrid:

Form in La Liga: WWLWWW
Form in all competitions: LLWDWW

Possible starting lineup: Casillas; Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Marcelo; Khedira, Kroos, Rodriguez; Bale, Benzema, Jese

Real Sociedad:

Form in La Liga: DDWDLW
Form in all competitions: WLDDLW

Possible starting lineup: Rulli; Elustondo, Gonzalez, Martinez, Yuri; Granero, Pardo, Vela, Prieto, Canales; Agirretxe

Sports Mole previews Sunday's La Liga clash between Real Sociedad and Real Madrid, including team news and predicted lineups.

Title challengers Real Madrid will be looking for their third straight La Liga victory when they travel to top-four hopefuls Real Sociedad on Sunday night.

Los Blancos have beaten Eibar and Valencia since the return of the 2019-20 campaign to keep in touch with Barcelona at the summit, but Sociedad have only collected one point from their last two matches.

Match preview

Fourteen wins, five draws and 10 defeats - that is how Sociedad have performed in La Liga this season, picking up 47 points to occupy sixth position in the table.

The Basque outfit are very much in a top-four race at this stage, sitting just two points behind fourth-placed Atletico Madrid, although they have not been in the best form since resuming their campaign.

Indeed, a 1-1 draw at home to Osasuna on June 14 was followed by a disappointing 2-0 loss away to Alaves on Thursday night, which makes Sunday's contest even more important for Imanol Alguacil's team.

Sociedad suffered a 3-1 defeat away to Madrid earlier this season, but they have actually won two of the last three league meetings between the two teams, and there is no question that the Whites and Blues are capable of picking up a positive result on Sunday evening despite their recent struggles.

Madrid, as mentioned, have picked up six points from their two matches since returning to action on June 14, following a 3-1 success over Eibar with a 3-0 victory over Valencia on Thursday night.

Karim Benzema netted twice against Los Che, while Marco Asensio came off the bench to score on his return from a serious knee injury, and the Spaniard's availability could be huge in the latter stages of the season.

As it stands, Los Blancos are just two points off leaders Barca, although the Spanish champions will have the chance to move five points clear when they face Sevilla on Friday night.

Any slip at the Estadio Ramon will open the door for Madrid, though, and Zinedine Zidane's side have actually only lost three of their 29 league games this season, which is the best record in the division.

The capital outfit also have the best away record in La Liga this season, picking up 25 points from their 14 matches, scoring 22 times in the process, which is the highest in the league.

Sociedad La Liga form: WWLWDL
Sociedad form (all competitions): WWLWDL

Real Madrid La Liga form: DLWLWW
Real Madrid form (all competitions): LLWLWW

Team News

Sociedad are hoping that Martin Odegaard will be fit to face his parent club, with the 21-year-old picking up a muscular problem during the team's disappointing defeat against Alaves.

Joseba Zaldua is suspended courtesy of the red card that he picked up on Thursday night, but Mikel Merino will return from a ban of his own and should feature in central midfield.

The Basque club are also expected to be without Ander Guevara, Ander Barrenetxea and Luca Sangalli, while club captain Asier Illarramendi is out for the remainder of the 2019-20 campaign.

Nacho Monreal and Robin Le Normand should both return to the back four this match, while Portu could earn a spot in the final third at the expense of Adnan Januzaj.

As for Madrid, Nacho, Luka Jovic, Lucas Vazquez and Isco are all on the sidelines through injury, while an ongoing toe problem is likely to keep Mariano Diaz out once again.

Asensio scored on his return to action against Valencia but after such a long period on the sidelines, it seems likely that the Spaniard will be used as a substitute once again.

There could be a change in the final third, though, with Rodrygo Goes, who started against Eibar, pushing to return on the right, meaning that Federico Valverde could drop back into midfield, taking Luka Modric's spot in the process.

There are not expected to be too many alterations from the side that started against Valencia, though, with Eden Hazard and Karim Benzema likely to continue in the final third of the field.

Sociedad possible starting lineup:
Remiro; Elustondo, Llotente, Le Normand, Monreal; Merino, Zubeldia, Odegaard; Oyarzabal, Willian Jose, Portu

Real Madrid possible starting lineup:
Courtois; Carvajal, Varane, Ramos, Mendy; Valverde, Casemiro, Kroos; Hazard, Benzema, Rodrygo

We say: Real Sociedad 1-2 Real Madrid

Madrid could be five points behind Barca by the time that they take to the field, showing the importance of the contest. Zidane's side have been in good form since the restart, and we fancy them to put another three points on the board in this match, albeit by the narrowest of margins.

Data Analysis

Our analysis of all available data, including recent performances and player stats up until an hour before kickoff, suggested the most likely outcome of this match was a Real Madrid win with a probability of 49.63%. A win for Real Sociedad had a probability of 26.82% and a draw had a probability of 23.5%.

The most likely scoreline for a Real Madrid win was 1-2 with a probability of 9.57%. The next most likely scorelines for that outcome were 0-1 (8.96%) and 0-2 (7.82%). The likeliest Real Sociedad win was 2-1 (6.71%), while for a drawn scoreline it was 1-1 (10.96%). The actual scoreline of 1-2 was predicted with a 9.6% likelihood. Our data analysis correctly predicted a 1-2 win for Real Madrid in this match.